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catchtrader International Financial Information

2020.08.07 13:28
[The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Pelosi, said that the stimulus bill negotiations are progressing and the negotiations are ongoing, but the two sides still have major differences before the self-determined Friday deadline]

[US President Trump stated that he plans to sign an executive order on Friday or Saturday to extend supplementary unemployment insurance and implement salary tax relief]

[Fed’s official Kaplan: The U.S. dollar’s status as a global reserve currency is safe in the near term, but it is not wise to think that it will always be so; the huge fiscal deficit that has to be financed by debt will bring long-term effects, assuming the U.S. dollar’s status will be unlimited Continuation is a dangerous idea]

[The Trump Administration will impose aluminum tariffs on Canada from August 16] 

Only a few weeks after the North American Trade Agreement came into effect, Canada, an important trading partner, was hit. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump will announce a 10% tariff on some Canadian aluminum. More than a month ago, U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer expressed concern about the recent plight of American aluminum producers, saying that the “surge” of metal flowing into the United States from Canada had harmed them.


[CME Group (CME) increased the margin for COMEX silver futures August contracts from $10,000/contract by 15% to $11,500/contract; increased the margin for COMEX 100 gold futures from $9020/contract by 6.1% to $9,570/contract ; Lower the margin of the September RBOB gasoline futures contract by 16.1% from US$7,150 per contract to US$6000 per contract]

[World Gold Council: In the first seven months of 2020, the scale of global gold ETFs increased by 21%] 

Global gold ETFs and similar products have seen net inflows for eight consecutive months. Their total holdings increased by 166 tons that month, and their asset management scale increased by 4% ( US$9.7 billion). The global total holdings reached 3,785 tons, setting a new high again. At the same time, at the end of July, the US dollar gold price set a record at 1976 US dollars per ounce, which brought the global gold ETF's total asset management scale to 239 billion US dollars. In the first seven months of 2020, the total global inflow of gold ETFs reached 899 tons (approximately US$49.1 billion), much higher than the previous record of annual inflows. At the beginning of August when the price of gold exceeded $2,000 per ounce, the growth trend of global gold ETFs continued.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

17:30

GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY)

 

22:30

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

  

 

22:30

USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

 

22:30

CAD

 

Employment Change (Jul)


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

U.S. employment indicators show that labor market recovery has slowed down and may even worsen


NOVOX International Financial Information


After the surge in coronavirus cases across the United States, all signs point to a slowdown in employment growth in July and may even get worse. Friday’s employment report is expected to show that non-agricultural employment increased by 1.5 million in July. Economists’ forecasts ranged from a decline of 600,000 to an increase of 3.2 million. In May and June, the total number of non-agricultural employment increased by 7.5 million, while the total number of unemployed fell by 22 million in the first two months after the outbreak. The unemployment rate in July is expected to fall from 11.1% to 10.5%, which is still twice the pre-crisis level.

The number of confirmed cases of the new crown in the United States has accelerated since mid-June, especially in the south and west, resulting in increased uncertainty in the economic recovery, and stimulating many states to suspend or re-implement epidemic prevention restrictions. Although there is no doubt that the economic recovery has stagnated in recent weeks, economists’ forecasts of employment in July depend on how much they attach importance to traditional and non-traditional employment indicators.

Judging from the higher frequency of labor market indicators, the signals range from slow recovery to sharp deterioration. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time each week continues to remain above 1 million. At the same time, an employment measure by Homebase shows that the labor market has basically shut down. The St. Louis Federal Reserve economist wrote in a blog post that the index based on this data "shows that the recent employment recovery has stopped."

The Census Bureau's "Household Pulse Survey" is even more frustrating. The report compares the survey conducted in mid-June and mid-July, showing that the number of Americans employed in the past 7 days has decreased by about 6.7 million. Lydia Boussour, senior economist at the Oxford Economics Institute, said, “If you look at all these factors together, it shows that the labor market really stagnated in July.” It predicts that the number of non-agricultural employment will decrease by 280,000 people.

Credit Suisse: Create a long limit order for the euro against the pound, with a target of 0.9200 and a stop loss of 0.8650


catchtrader International Financial Information


Credit Suisse's position report on Thursday (August 6th) showed that the new EUR/GBP long limit order, the entry point is 0.8800, the target is 0.9200, and the stop loss is set at 0.8650. Analysts said that from our point of view, the target price of the euro against the pound remains at 0.9200, while the euro against the dollar will look at 1.2800 in the medium term, mainly due to the UK's deficit and fundamentals. The reason why we are again inclined to short the British pound is mainly due to the issue of the trade agreement. As for the entry point, we believe that we can enter the market and short the British pound against the US dollar around 1.3400, and we can also enter the market around 0.8800 and go long the euro against the pound.

Morgan Stanley: A risk angle tends to bearish the pound, seeking to short the pound

Morgan Stanley Research indicated that the pound has reached an overbought area and is seeking opportunities for weakness. The bank believes that the valuation of the pound has reached an extended high, so from a risk perspective, it tends to be bearish on the pound and seek opportunities to short the pound again. Since May, the pound has risen from the 1.21 area to 1.30. The recent pull is mainly driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the weakening of the real yields of U.S. Treasuries. The options market is no longer as extremely bearish as it was in early July.

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