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catchtrader International Financial Information

2020.08.05 11:27

[API report: US crude oil inventories decreased by 8.587 million barrels to 520 million barrels last week]

 In the week of July 31, API gasoline inventories decreased by 1.75 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 3.82 million barrels, and Cushing's inventory increased by 1.63 million barrels ; US crude oil imports increased by 123,000 barrels per day last week.


[The White House and Democratic congressional leaders report that some progress has been made in the discussion of the fifth large-scale COVID-19 assistance bill, but they still have differences on a series of issues]

[European Central Bank’s July debt purchases decreased by nearly 40 billion euros from the previous month]

 The improvement in market conditions and the European Central Bank’s usual slowdown in the summer has led to July’s emergency bond purchases (PEPP) purchases from June The 120 billion euros fell to a level slightly above 80 billion euros. The European Central Bank’s chief economist Lien said that it is reasonable not to over-interpret the European Central Bank’s July bond purchase slowdown. It only shows that the European Central Bank is satisfied with the current progress and is not eager to buy bonds to further narrow the spread.

GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

08:45

NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)

 

18:30

GBP

 

 

Composite PMI (Jul)

  

 

18:30

GBP

 

Services PMI (Jul)

 

22:15

USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)

 


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

Barclays Bank: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England may not unanimously pass the interest rate decision


catchtrader International Financial Information


The voting results of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee on interest rate decisions announced on Thursday are likely to be divergent, but November may be the time to make a decision, because the data may provide support to one of them. The Bank of England members Haskell and Tenreiro are expected to advocate caution, while Haldane, the chief economist of the Bank of England, is expected to be optimistic. It is worth noting that August is the month for the Bank of England to review its equilibrium interest rate expectations. Therefore, it is possible to release its evaluation report on the effective lower limit (ELB) at the same time as the interest rate resolution is announced, but it is estimated that it will not provide any ELB and negative interest rates. Clear instructions.

United Overseas Bank: The outlook for USD/JPY remains uncertain


catchtrader International Financial Information


UOB technical analysts pointed out that the outlook for the dollar against the yen is still uncertain. A 24-hour view: Yesterday emphasized that there is still room for a sharp rebound, but any gains are regarded as part of the wide range of 105.30-106.70, but trading The interval 105.56-106.46 is narrower than expected, and the price trend has not provided new clues. It is expected to settle in the 105.50-106.50 interval.

Views in the next one to three weeks: Since July 22 (106.85), the dollar has been expected to weaken against the yen. Since last Tuesday (July 28), it has been emphasized that the foreign exchange price will exceed 105.00, but it quickly touched 104.40. The probability is not high, but last Friday broke through 104.40 and fell to 104.17 and rebounded and easily broke through the multiple resistance level 106.05 high point. This kind of price trend is not common. The single-day volatility of 188 points is the largest order since the March chaos The daily volatility, although the negative phase has clearly ended, the outlook is still uncertain and may still fluctuate in a wide range of 105.00-107.00.

ING: If Friday’s U.S. employment data is lower than expected, U.S. bond yields will hit a record low


Strategists at ING said that if the US employment data on Friday is lower than expected, it may trigger a boom in the purchase of safe-haven assets, and US bond yields will fall to historical lows. Economists expect hiring activities to slow down sharply. According to Bloomberg data, the median expected value of new jobs in July will only reach 1.5 million, far lower than the 4.8 million in June. ING senior strategist Antoine Bouvet said that if the actual data is less than 1 million, the market will be disappointed; he wrote in a report: "Our American economists clearly predict that the risk of employment data is downward."

The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is currently hovering at around 0.5% and 1.8% at the beginning of 2020. In the long run, Bouvet expects that the yield gap between U.S. Treasury bonds and German Treasury bonds will widen, but due to the employment report, Friday’s gains The rate difference may be narrowed. He said in an interview: "I will take some chips from the table. It turns out that if the US data is very poor, you can get a better starting point for trading." Bouvet expects that the good news in the United States (such as the passage of a new round of economic stimulus bills by Congress) and the increase in the number of new crown cases in Europe will eventually lead to a widening of the spread between US and German government bonds.


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