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catchtrader International Financial Information

2020.08.04 13:16
[U.S. Senate Minority Party (Democratic) Leader Schumer: The Democratic Party insists on its position on unemployment assistance, and there are still many differences on the issue of epidemic assistance programs]

[Federal Reserve Brad: It is important to keep inflation expectations at 2%, and interest rates are expected to remain low for a long time to come. The economy is expected to rebound sharply in the third quarter]

[Fed Kaplan: Unless the epidemic can be better controlled, the unemployment rate at the end of the year is expected to be around 9% or 10%. It does not support linking forward-looking guidance to inflation, and is more willing to link any future forward-looking guidance to employment Link, or combine inflation and employment]

[Federal Reserve Evans: The unemployment rate in the United States is expected to be 9.5% at the end of 2020 and 6.5% at the end of 2021. Unless inflation rises to 2.5%, there is no need to raise interest rates and may not use negative interest rates as a tool at any time]

 

GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

00:00

USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

11:30

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

  

 

14:30

AUD

 

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 

14:30

AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 



Summary of Institutional Perspectives

United Overseas Bank of Singapore looks forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision


catchtrader International Financial Information


The Reserve Bank of Australia has reduced the official cash rate (OCR) to its lower limit of 0.25%. Therefore, the Bank believes that its policy rate will not be further reduced. The Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Lowe has temporarily ruled out the possibility of negative interest rates. It is expected that the RBA’s focus will remain firmly on ensuring that the bond market has sufficient liquidity and the free flow of credit to households and businesses.

Wells Fargo: Maintaining the Eurozone's second-quarter GDP decline forecast of 7.7%, the euro still has room for upside



Preliminary signs indicate that the euro area maintained a reasonable degree of growth at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, but economic activity in the euro area still suffered a record decline in the second quarter. In view of the progress made in response measures by fiscal and monetary policy makers and in curbing the spread of the virus, our bank sees reasons for a sustained economic recovery. Despite the sharp decline in GDP in the second quarter, our bank is not inclined to make major adjustments to the euro zone's GDP forecast for 2020, and still expects GDP to decline by 7.7%. Although the euro has potential downside risks in the short term, given the more constructive economic outlook of the euro zone, it is expected that the euro will still have room for upside in the medium term.

Citi: GBP/USD may consolidate in the short term


catchtrader International Financial Information


The UK's fiscal response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic has been the country's largest fiscal response to date in peacetime. Taking into account the upcoming bond issuance level, coupled with the Monetary Policy Committee's unwillingness to provide additional large-scale quantitative easing, the British government debt curve may face continued upward pressure in the medium term. The increase in yields caused by increased fiscal risks may put pressure on the pound, which is expected to consolidate in the short term.

Mitsubishi UFJ: The US dollar against the Canadian dollar will fall further and will fall to 1.3000 in the second quarter of next year


catchtrader International Financial Information


It is expected that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will continue to fall in the next few quarters, and will reach the level of 1.3000 in the second quarter of next year. In its latest assessment in July, the Bank of Canada stated that as the weakness has caused severe deflationary pressure, the recovery after the initial economic recovery will be long and bumpy. Unlike the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet, the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet has expanded from 528 billion Canadian dollars at the end of June to 540 billion Canadian dollars. Therefore, the Bank expects that the poor performance of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar USD/CAD will continue. .
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