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catchtrader International Financial Information

2020.08.03 13:09

[Iraqi official: Iraq’s crude oil exports decreased by 58,000 barrels/day in July] 

The Iraqi Ministry of Petroleum officials stated that oil exports controlled by the Iraqi federal government decreased by 58,000 barrels/day to 2.76 million barrels/day, with a total output of 3.2 million barrels. /Day, of which 470,000 barrels/day is used for domestic consumption; Iraq’s total crude oil production, including the Kurdish region, is 3.63 million barrels/day, slightly higher than the production limit set by the OPEC production reduction agreement for Iraq at 3.592 million barrels/day. According to data from Bloomberg tracking tankers, Iraq’s national oil marketing organization SOMO reduced its crude oil exports by 46,000 barrels per day in July.


[The number of new cases of new crowns in a single day in the world exceeds 290,000 and hit a new high] 

According to the new crown epidemic data released by the World Health Organization on July 31, the number of new cases in a single day in the world exceeds 290,000, which is a new high. The WHO's daily epidemic report shows that since July 20, the number of new cases every day worldwide has exceeded 200,000. As of 10:00, July 31, Central European time (16:00 Beijing time), the number of confirmed cases worldwide increased by 292,527 compared with the previous day, reaching 17,106,007; death cases increased by 6812, reaching 668,910. 


[Russia will increase the oil export tax to US$46.9 per ton from August 1]

 According to a document from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the oil export tax will be raised by US$9.1 to US$46.9 per ton from August 1, 2020.


[Trump said he will vote in absentia in the general election]

 US President Trump has successively questioned the use of mail voting in the US general election in the past two days. On July 31, local time, he said that he planned to vote by absentee ballots in the 2020 general election. According to the US "Business Insider" report, Trump said in an interview with US media that this voting method is very good, "I will vote in absentia", and once again condemned the mail voting method. However, US media pointed out that according to voting experts, Trump made a wrong distinction between mailed votes and absentee votes.


[When the U.S. Congress discusses the next stimulus bill, the income of about 30 million Americans is facing a sharp decline] 

As the U.S. Congress discusses what should be included in the next new crown stimulus bill, about 30 million Americans will officially fall off the "income cliff": Starting on August 1, their weekly unemployment insurance benefits will be reduced by $600 because of the expiration of the federally enhanced benefits implemented under the Nursing Act; according to an analysis by the House Ways and Means Committee, this It may mean that some people's income will be reduced by two-thirds. Since Congress did not pass another bill this month, the relief funds will lapse in at least a few weeks.


[Russian production in July is slightly higher than OPEC's production limit] 

According to data from the CDU-TEK department of the Russian Ministry of Energy, Russian crude oil and condensate production in July increased from 9.32 million barrels per day in June to 9.37 million barrels per day. According to the OPEC+ agreement, Russia promised to reduce its daily output to around 8.5 million barrels from May to July to support oil prices (the agreement does not include the production of condensate). Russia’s condensate production is usually 700-800,000 barrels per day, which means that excluding condensate, Russia’s July crude oil production may be around 857-867 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the production target level in the OPEC agreement.


[British Petroleum began to repair its balance sheet, preparing to achieve green environmental protection]

 The chief executive of the British oil giant does not know how the virus will shake the foundation of its industry: since the pandemic began, BP has stated that it will write off up to 17.5 billion U.S. dollar fossil fuel assets, lay off 10,000 employees and withdraw from the petrochemical business. On Tuesday, the company may announce its first dividend cut since the Macondo oil spill 10 years ago. The chief executive of the British oil giant said the global spread of the coronavirus "only reiterated the need to reshape our company." This pandemic has created a world where there is less oil pumping, more energy comes from renewable energy, and less carbon dioxide emissions. This is exactly what he said BP should do. It is widely expected that the company will start next week. Following the example of Royal Dutch Shell Plc in cutting dividends, it may free up funds to invest in clean energy.


GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

09:50

JPY

 

GDP (QoQ)

 

11:45

CNY

 

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

  

 

17:55

EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

18:30

GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 



Summary of Institutional Perspectives

ANZ Bank: The US dollar still has room for downside in the near future, but it may not yet start a long-term bear market


catchtrader International Financial Information


ANZ Bank said that many people believe that a long-term US dollar bear market is coming. We are not sure about this, but believe that the US dollar has room to fall in the near future; a broader long-term trend reversal may require more factors, a more certain global growth environment, and a A more viable alternative to the U.S. dollar as a denominated currency, and a safe asset market that is deeper and more liquid than the U.S. Treasury market; the U.S. Treasury market is larger than all other markets, and nearly 40% of the bonds issued are U.S. Treasury bonds, ranking in The second European Union is far behind, with only 20% of outstanding securities.

On the demand side, the US consumer market is still in a key position in the world. Coupled with a deep capital market that can store profits and working capital, as well as free convertibility, the U.S. dollar is likely to remain the currency of choice for most transactions; in the next few months, Global economic growth will become the strongest driving force for the dollar. The question is whether it can trigger a virtuous cycle between the dollar and global growth. This possibility exists for the rest of the year, but in addition, given that there are a large number of identifiable external shocks , It seems premature to predict the start of the multi-year depreciation trend of the dollar.

Mitsubishi UFJ: Potential "turbulence" after the US election will weigh on the US dollar


catchtrader International Financial Information


Mitsubishi UFJ strategists said that Trump's tweet on Thursday raised the issue of delaying the election as a harbinger of political uncertainty and may weigh on the dollar. Mitsubishi UFJ strategists Derek Halpenny and Lee Hardman released a report on Friday, saying that as Trump’s concerns about “Biden’s possible victory in the election illegitimate” escalated, there is a downside risk to the U.S. dollar, although Trump cannot change what it should be under the law. Congress determines the election date, but the market does need to prepare for the potential turmoil after the election; Trump’s tweet did make the dollar weaker, but we don’t think the market has digested the electoral turmoil and mailing votes will slow down The process of obtaining the final result may also bring uncertainty.

Bank of America: the pound will usher in a perfect storm, short the pound against the Swiss franc


catchtrader 专业的外汇跟单平台


Bank of America’s Global Research Department said on Friday (July 31) that it will remain bearish on the pound until the end of the year and will short the pound against the Swiss franc; we remain bearish on the pound, and believe it will usher in a perfect storm in the third quarter/fourth quarter. The pound will also face a seasonal headwind at the end of the year. The pound weakened in the context of high political uncertainty. We expect the pound to fall against the Swiss franc. From a historical perspective, August-December includes four negative months for the performance of the British pound. While the global context will provide broader daily impetus to G10 currencies, the pound will be more driven by monetary policy stance, the ability of the economy to rebound from the new crown epidemic, and the current deadlocked Brexit negotiations. These constitute our structurally bearish view on which we tend to short the GBP/CHF.
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