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catchtrader International Financial Information

2020.08.10 13:48
[Aboriginal International Bank: optimism about the pound may cool down next week]
ABN AMRO stated that the British pound rose slightly on the day of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, but the current gains have subsided, and the market’s optimism for the pound may be cold in the coming week; next week will focus on the UK’s June three-month ILO unemployment rate and the second In terms of quarterly GDP, as far as the former is concerned, the market expects that the unemployment rate will rise from 3.9% to 4.2%. In terms of GDP, the market is expected to shrink by 20% from the previous quarter.

[Analyst: The dollar’s rebound last Friday does not mean the end of recent weakness]
① Some analysts said that the rebound of the US dollar index last Friday may not mean the end of recent weakness.
② The US dollar index hit its lowest level in two years on Thursday. Despite the rise on Friday, the weekly decline is still expected to fall by 0.05%. This is the seventh consecutive weekly decline and the longest weekly decline in ten years.
③ Joe Manimbo, a senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Waashington, said that "a monthly report is not enough to stop the dollar from falling."
④Investors are also paying close attention to Washington's ongoing consultations on aid plans. So far, the U.S. Republicans and Democrats have not been able to reach an agreement on the scale of fiscal stimulus measures. Many investors say these measures are necessary to prevent the economy from losing more momentum.

[After the talks between the White House and the Democratic Party broke down, support for the already solid US economic recovery is weakening]
Trump provides $300 a week for the unemployed (the other $100 is provided by the local states) in federal relief. The capital is capped at 44 billion U.S. dollars, and according to the current unemployment rate, it may be exhausted within one to two months.

[US media: Trump complains to Republican funders of too little support]
U.S. media reported on the 8th that U.S. President Trump complained about insufficient support for his re-election in a phone call with the Republican "super funder" Sheldon Adelson last week. It is reported that 87-year-old Adelson called Trump to discuss the government’s rescue plan in response to the epidemic and the country’s economic conditions, but Trump turned the topic to the campaign and asked Adelson why he did not do more to help He was running for re-election, and the atmosphere between the two became tense. The report said that Republicans were shocked by the incident and tried to contact Adelson to ease the relationship between him and Trump. They also worry that this call may cause Adelson to stop funding in the final months before the 2020 presidential election. With a net worth of more than $26 billion, Adelson has long been one of the most important donors to the U.S. Republican Party. According to the New York Times, Adelson and his wife have donated tens of millions of dollars to Trump's campaign over the years.

[Five major oil companies in the world make huge write-downs on assets]
Due to the sharp decline in fuel prices and demand due to the new crown epidemic, the world’s five largest oil companies (Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, Total) in the second quarter cut their asset values by nearly US$50 billion and significantly Cut production. Global fuel demand once dropped by more than 30%, and it is still lower than the level before the epidemic. Several executives at the oil company said the huge write-downs were made because they expected demand to remain impaired in the coming quarters.

[Bloomberg economist Andrew Husby: Stimulus is better than nothing]
Andrew Husby said the White House has signed four executive orders to support unemployment benefits, postpone payroll taxes, extend the moratorium on evictions, and postpone student loan repayments. These are better than no solutions; nonetheless, the economy in a severe crisis needs to guarantee lasting stimulus, not a series of short-term measures; it is crucial that we note that due to Trump’s plan to use limited cash There is a pool of funds to expand unemployment benefits-$400 a week, so there is a high risk of funds drying up on the eve of the election.

GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

11:00

GBP

 

ANZ Business Confidence (Jul)

 

11:30

CNY

 

 

CPI (YoY) (Jul)

  

 

11:30

CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

11:30

CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Jul)


Summary of Institutional Perspectives


Bank of America: The market may be too complacent to bearish the dollar


catchtrader International Financial Information


The Bank of America Research Department discussed the current market environment on Friday (August 7), and noted that the market consensus may be too complacent before the November U.S. election and the possible vaccine launches until the end of the year. The bank pointed out that considering the market’s generally strong bearish performance of the US dollar, the US dollar may continue to weaken. The current technical, quantitative, and capital flow perspectives largely reflect how the market is trading at the moment. They are still bearish on the US dollar. So we will not try to grab a fallen knife. However, despite the sharp sell-off of the U.S. dollar, the U.S. dollar still remains overvalued compared to the long-term equilibrium level. Although this rate has been reduced to 3.7% from the 12% overvalued in March, however, from our discussions, we believe that The market consensus may be too complacent or self-confident before a series of major risks hit.

Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ: short the euro against the dollar, target 1.1600 and stop loss at 1.1950


catchtrader International Financial Information


The Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (MUFG) position report on Friday (August 7th) shows that the new short position in the euro against the dollar has an entry point of 1.1829, a target of 1.1600, and a stop loss at 1.1950. Analysts of the bank said that we recommend shorting the euro against the dollar, which is an operating strategy for the recent situation. The euro against the dollar has risen nearly 7% since June, but this has caused the dollar to have been severely oversold, so the risk of the currency pair’s correction has increased. We know that the US dollar still has the risk of further weakness, so our short position has set a small stop loss space. In addition, shorting the euro against the yen also has a very good risk-reward ratio.

United Overseas Bank: USD/JPY market outlook is expected to continue range consolidation pattern

Analysts from United Overseas Bank pointed out that the USD/JPY will once again fall into a range consolidation mode under the background that the global currency market is still inevitably dominated by risk aversion in the near future. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 105.00-106.60 for a period of time in the future. Previously, the U.S. dollar against the yen recorded a sharp drop last week, falling below the 105 psychological mark. The rapid outbreak of the domestic epidemic in the United States has led to doubts about the value of the dollar’s safe-haven value. But now in Tokyo, Japan, the alert level is also adjusted to the highest level. And the yen once again stood on the same starting line in terms of hedging attributes.


catchtrader International Financial Information


Any news related to the global epidemic and economy will once again have the same impact on both advances and retreats, and the probability of unilateral market recurrence is no longer high. UOB therefore predicts that at least in the next 1-3 weeks, the US dollar against the yen will maintain a consolidation market, but if the basic face ratio changes again and the US dollar against the yen falls below the key support level of 104.70, there will be downside reopen.
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