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catchtrader International Financial Information

2020.08.06 11:11

[EIA report: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 7.373 million barrels to 518.6 million barrels last week] 

U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 11 million barrels per day last week; commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves imported 601 last week 10,000 barrels per day, an increase of 864,000 barrels per day from the previous week; last week, crude oil exports decreased by 392,000 barrels per day to 2.819 million barrels per day.


[U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi: I and Schumer, the leader of the Senate Minority Party (Democratic), are determined to reach an agreement on a stimulus bill to meet public needs; I feel optimistic after negotiating with White House officials]

[Fed Meester: The US GDP is expected to shrink by 6% in 2020, and the uncertainty is very high. High-frequency data shows that US economic activity has slowed in recent weeks. The U.S. economy clearly needs more financial support]

[Federal Reserve Kaplan: I believe that the economy is rebounding and the development of the epidemic will determine the speed. It is estimated that the GDP will grow at an annual rate of 20% in the third quarter and shrink by 5% for the whole year of this year]

[Iraq Oil Minister: Will be forced to abide by the OPEC+ production agreement 100% in August and September. It has not fully complied with before. Iraq’s failure to fully comply with the OPEC+ production agreement means that other countries will follow suit]

[Saudi Aramco plans to announce the official price of September crude oil on Thursday]

GMT(time)

Currency

News and Data

16:00

GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

16:15

GBP

 

 

Interest Rate Decision

  

 

21:30

GBP

 

BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

 

22:30

USD

 


Initial Jobless Claims


Summary of Institutional Perspectives

Bank of America: The August Bank of England resolution may only be a "transition" but may strengthen the pound's bearish stance


catchtrader International Financial Information


Bank of America’s Global Research Department discussed its forward forecast for Thursday’s July interest rate decision by the Bank of England. The bank said that in addition to the already hinted reduction in bond purchases, no other policy changes are expected in the Bank of England's decision. The Bank of England will moderate its previous forecast of a V-shaped rebound in the economy. It can pay attention to the committee's updated assessment of negative interest rate tools. It is expected that the Bank of England in November will lower the lower limit of the interest rate corridor to a negative level, cut interest rates to zero, lower the term financing mechanism (TFS) below the interest rate level, and authorize additional purchases of 100 billion pounds of bonds.

The August resolution is likely to be a transitional resolution to make technical and moderate adjustments to the quantitative easing program. Therefore, it is not believed that the August resolution will have a milestone impact on the pound. On the contrary, from a political or policy perspective, the The resolution may strengthen the bearish outlook for the pound to the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs: Why the short-term and mid-term euro against the US dollar will rise


catchtrader International Financial Information


Goldman Sachs said that if the diversification of foreign exchange reserves is taken into account, the euro has upside risks in the medium term. The diversity of official foreign exchange reserves and the asset allocation of the private sector are determined by different factors. For the U.S. dollar, considering that the foreign policy of the U.S. government may become a priority for the U.S. and contribute less to global production, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. dollar’s share of foreign exchange reserves declines.

In contrast, the role of the euro as a global reserve asset is becoming brighter. In particular, the European Union Recovery Fund should bring benefits to the euro zone’s economic stability, indicating that there are upside risks to the euro’s outlook. The previous bullish euro forecast was based on cyclical and valuation considerations rather than diversification of foreign exchange reserves. If the government starts to shift its attention away from the US dollar, it is expected that the euro will have more upward movements and may rise to 1.25 in the next 12 months. At the same time, based on the recent gains in the exchange rate, it is expected that the exchange rate will continue to rise further in the short term.

Morgan Stanley: The risk angle tends to turn bearish on bullish USD/JPY


catchtrader International Financial Information


Morgan Stanley's research department on Wednesday discussed the outlook for the dollar against the yen and believed that the risk tends to shift from bullish to bearish; the bank still maintains a neutral view of the dollar against the yen, but from a risk perspective, it tends to shift from bullish to bearish Until recently, the bank has always expected that the fluctuation of exchange rates will be limited, because the US dollar and Japanese yen tend to act as financing currencies, making the dollar-yen currency pair less sensitive to risks.
However, when the price is close to the 105.00 level, we found that there seems to be little demand for bargain hunting. The high valuation of US dollar assets and low arbitrage may not attract Japanese investors to fully participate in bargain hunting transactions. It is believed that the trend of the US dollar against the yen is likely to be unilaterally affected by the US dollar. The bank does not recommend shorting USD/JPY from the 104-105 area. It is still seeking short rallies at the moment. For example, it is not considering a repurchase after the weak USD, but considering if the USD is temporarily profitable. The situation of liquidation rebound.


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